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Huge data-driven spatio-temporal heterogeneity evaluation of Beijing’s catering service business throughout the COVID-19 pandemic


Spatio-temporal evolution of CSI

Fluctuations of catering-related POI amount

We performed statistical evaluation on the fluctuations within the amount of catering-related POI. The fluctuations within the amount of catering-related POI in Beijing from 2018 to 2023 corresponded carefully to the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. This sample exhibited an total “W” formed fluctuation, with pivotal shifts occurring in November 2020, December 2021, and Might 2022, as depicted in Fig. 3. In line with knowledge from the China Delicacies Affiliation, the overall income of the nationwide CSI within the first quarter of 2020 was solely 602.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 44.3%. From March, CSI regularly resumed throughout varied areas, and the market started recovering. By November 2020, the overall annual income of Chinese language CSI reached 3.46 trillion yuan, exhibiting an 18.6% year-on-year lower. Contemplating the nationwide context of the CSI and the evolving COVID-19 state of affairs in Beijing, though the CSI in Beijing had entered a restoration section, the tempo of restoration was modest. The variety of POI data remained comparatively low, solely barely surpassing the information noticed in Might 2022, when there was a big outbreak. Previous to the outbreak of the pandemic in 2018 and 2019, the variety of POI was on an upward trajectory, however Beijing broke this development in 2020. In 2021, because the pandemic stabilized in varied areas and as a result of varied coverage helps, the variety of POI elevated quickly, contributing to a big restoration of the CSI. Within the first half of 2022, Beijing skilled a number of localized outbreaks of the pandemic, inflicting a setback within the CSI. The variety of catering-related POI in Might 2022 was notably decrease than in 2021. From June 2022 to January 2023, with modifications within the pandemic state of affairs and management insurance policies, there was a fluctuating enhance within the variety of POI.

Determine 3
figure 3

Variations within the amount of catering-related POI in Beijing. The determine was drawn with Origin software program model 2023 (https://www.originlab.com/).

We computed the change price within the variety of catering-related POI in varied city districts of Beijing over totally different years. Combining this with Beijing’s city spatial construction planning (categorized into 4 forms of city districts), the outcomes revealed a correlation between the speed of change within the variety of catering-related POIs in numerous city districts and their respective classes. Throughout 2020 and 2021, city areas with the next price of change in POI numbers have been predominantly in ecological conservation zones, whereas extra steady tendencies have been noticed in core and central districts. The utmost detrimental development price occurred in November 2020, noticed in Yanqing District at − 44.61%. A complete of 9 city areas exhibited detrimental development charges in 2020, with all six areas throughout the ecological conservation zone exhibiting substantial detrimental development, above − 20%. The utmost optimistic development price was noticed in 2021, at 126.99% within the Mentougou district. Areas with considerably optimistic development charges have been nonetheless concentrated all through your complete ecological conservation area, starting from 68.92 to 126.99%. Notably, in Might 2022, city areas with the next variety of confirmed instances skilled distinguished detrimental development in POI numbers. As an illustration, Fengtai, Chaoyang, and Fangshan districts all demonstrated detrimental development charges of round − 20%. Dongcheng and Xicheng districts exhibited essentially the most substantial detrimental development charges, recorded at − 23.30% and − 22.90% respectively. From the attitude of Beijing’s city district traits, the steadiness and resilience of the CSI in peripheral city districts of Beijing appeared comparatively fragile, whereas extra developed city districts nearer to town middle exhibited relative stability.

Modifications of CSI agglomeration degree

To additional discover the spatial traits of the CSI throughout the COVID-19 pandemic in Beijing, we utilized the KDE and SDE to research the heterogeneity of the agglomeration traits of the CSI primarily based on the annual catering-related POI knowledge. The spatiotemporal variations within the agglomeration traits of the CSI in Beijing from 2018 to 2023 exhibited similarities with the variety of catering-related POI fluctuations. The diploma of agglomeration diversified in response to the event of the pandemic, persevering with to comply with a “W”-shaped fluctuation development, as illustrated in Fig. 4A. Round important pandemic occasions, particularly in 2020 and Might 2022, the diploma of agglomeration decreased. Conversely, throughout steady pandemic circumstances, akin to in October 2021 and October 2022, the diploma of agglomeration deepened.

Determine 4
figure 4

(A) Kernel density of catering-related POI in Beijing from 2018 to 2023. (B) Distribution of gravity middle and normal deviational ellipse of the CSI in Beijing from 2018 to 2023. The determine was drawn with ArcGIS software program model 10.7 (https://www.arcgis.com/index.html).

The spatial distribution of CSI in Beijing demonstrated a pronounced “one core, a number of facilities” configuration. The diploma of agglomeration within the CSI regularly decreased from the core city space to the central city space, additional to the peripheral city space, and ultimately to the ecological conservation space. The zenith of agglomeration was concentrated within the western precinct of Chaoyang district and the japanese sector of Dongcheng district, adhering to a distribution mannequin typified by “centralized focus and peripheral diffusion.” For your complete metropolis of Beijing, in November 2020, the diploma of agglomeration throughout the CSI registered a big decline in comparison with the previous and ensuing years. Town’s highest kernel density worth for your complete metropolis amounted to 394.10 in 2020, which was decrease than the figures of 502.69 in 2019 and 450.87 in 2021. Equally, in Might 2022, the extent of agglomeration within the CSI was decrease when juxtaposed with each June and October of the identical yr. All through each November 2020 and Might 2022, the 2 distinguished time factors of change, the agglomeration dynamics of the CSI retained their uniformity. Excessive-level agglomeration areas have been decreased or downgraded, significantly within the core and central city areas, whereas low-level agglomeration factors disappeared, with a notable presence within the ecological conservation areas.

We employed normal deviation ellipses for additional evaluation of Beijing’s CSI spatial format, as illustrated in Fig. 4B. From 2018 to 2023, the usual deviation ellipses exhibited a southward inclination over your complete city space, following a northeast-to-southwest orientation. The directional alignment remained constant throughout these years, with minimal deviation of the ellipse middle. Contemplating the extent of the usual deviation ellipses, in November 2020, the usual deviation ellipse for catering-related POI exhibited the shortest perimeter at 141.18 km and the smallest space at 1538.62 km2. This indicated that the distribution vary of the CSI in Beijing contracted considerably in 2020, reflecting constrained improvement throughout that yr. Following December 2021, the scope of the usual deviation ellipses expanded, with areas exceeding 2000 km2, surpassing the ellipse areas of each 2018 and 2019. This signified a broader spatial distribution of CSI in Beijing in comparison with the pre-pandemic.

Variation of catering facility range

Within the complete evaluation of CSI in Beijing, it was noticed that spatiotemporal heterogeneity existed in each the amount distribution and diploma of agglomeration. Moreover, variations in spatiotemporal patterns have been additionally recognized amongst various kinds of catering services (Fig. 5A). We calculated the SHDI for varied catering service services in every district of Beijing from 2018 to 2023. The SHDI was employed to gauge the purposeful range of catering service services in Beijing. Usually, the SHDI values throughout town exhibited a spatial sample of “excessive within the middle and low within the environment”. The spatial distribution high quality of catering service services was notably uneven, with excessive SHDI values predominantly concentrated in pixels throughout the core and central city districts, whereas decrease SHDI values have been prevalent in pixels located within the peripheral areas of Beijing. This sample was in step with the agglomeration traits of the general CSI. Probably the most distinguished fluctuation in SHDI values in Beijing occurred in 2020. Quite a few areas throughout the core and central city areas skilled a big lower in excessive SHDI values, transitioning to reasonable and low-value zones. Throughout the peripheral city and ecological conservation zones, a considerable variety of mid-level SHDI pixel values reworked into low-value areas. Commencing in 2021, SHDI values in varied districts exhibited an upward development inside dynamic fluctuations, mitigating the beforehand noticed decline. Throughout totally different areas, the variety of catering companies accessible to residents improved to various levels, a development primarily pushed by the restoration of Beijing’s CSI.

Determine 5
figure 5

(A) Multi-function combine range of Beijing’s CSI from 2018 to 2023. (B) Variation charges of various kinds of catering service services in Beijing. The x-axis represents time spans for evaluating the portions of various kinds of catering service services. As an illustration, “18.07–19.06” signifies the change within the amount of a selected kind of catering service facility in June 2019 in comparison with July 2018. The y-axis represents the change price of the portions of those services. The determine (A) was drawn with ArcGIS software program model 10.7 (https://www.arcgis.com/index.html). The determine (B) was plotted with Origin software program model 2023 (https://www.originlab.com/).

We analyzed the speed of change within the amount of six classes of CSI institutions in Beijing, as proven in Fig. 5B. The variety of Chinese language eating places remained comparatively steady total, and even skilled a slight enhance in 2020 with a development price of 19.82%. Regardless of fluctuations within the amount of varied forms of institutions in Might and June 2022, Chinese language eating places exhibited comparatively decrease charges of change, at − 12.13% and 11.63%, respectively. Chinese language eating places ranked fifth when rating the speed of change in amount for the six classes from highest to lowest. This positioning steered that Chinese language eating places displayed a sure degree of stability and resilience within the context of the pandemic. In 2020, the class with the biggest detrimental development in amount was fast-food eating places, with a detrimental development price of − 43.91%. Conversely, in 2021, fast-food eating places had the best optimistic development price, at 90.09%. Equally, in Might and June 2022, fast-food eating places skilled important fluctuations in amount. This steered that fast-food eating places exhibited comparatively low stability however possess a level of resilience. International eating places additionally displayed traits much like fast-food eating places. Leisure eating institutions, which embody versatile attributes akin to recent fruit bars and occasional eating places, exhibited a distinguished and irregular price of change in amount, with no clear sample discernible.

Driving forces of CSI evolvement

Robust interconnections amongst dwelling companies

The CSI falls throughout the realm of the life service business, intimately intertwined with the material of human existence. As numerous life service sectors hardly ever function in isolation, it turns into essential to look at the spatial correlations amongst these totally different companies. We utilized correlation coefficients (R) to research the linear relationships amongst variables. When R < 0.4, it signifies a weak correlation; 0.4 < R < 0.6, it suggests a reasonable correlation; 0.6 < R < 0.8, it signifies a powerful correlation; R > 0.8, it denotes a really sturdy correlation. After standardizing the POI density for numerous services and computing correlation coefficients, we performed a spatial correlation evaluation on the density among the many seven distinct forms of life service industries in Beijing. The outcomes constantly revealed patterns throughout totally different years, with some correlation coefficients displaying a most numerical distinction of 0.05. Finally, we centered on the POI knowledge from the yr 2020, a pivotal interval within the improvement of the COVID-19 pandemic, to allow an evaluation throughout the context of the pandemic.

The spatial distribution of varied city dwelling service sectors in Beijing reveals important correlations (Fig. 6). The R between the CSI and varied dwelling service sectors exceeded 0.8, indicating a strong correlation. The R between the CSI and scenic spots was 0.51, reflecting a reasonable correlation between the CSI and the tourism sector. The CSI serves as a foundational element of city dwelling companies, and every kind of service facility inside this sector depends considerably on it. The event of varied city dwelling service sectors is intrinsically linked to the assist offered by the CSI. Amidst the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, statistics from the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics revealed that your complete service-oriented client market within the metropolis confronted disruptions. Varied city dwelling service sectors skilled slowdowns and even regression of their improvement, resulting in mutual influences and constraints.

Determine 6
figure 6

Spatial correlation of varied service sectors in Beijing. The outcomes have been derived from the information of the yr 2020. The determine was plotted with Origin software program model 2023 (https://www.originlab.com/).

Influencing elements and mechanisms

To delve into the determinants of the event of the CSI in Beijing, we initially standardized all the indications. Subsequently, these standardized influencing elements have been imported into the Geographic detector to calculate their explanatory energy for the income of the CSI in Beijing (Desk 3). All eight elements demonstrated an impression on the event of the CSI. Aside from per capita disposable earnings, the remaining elements have been statistically important on the 0.05 degree, with explanatory energy starting from 50 to 80%. The spatiotemporal sample of Beijing’s CSI was collectively formed by elements akin to financial degree, inhabitants distribution, the comfort of service services, and the danger of the COVID-19 pandemic. The dominant driving elements included complete retail gross sales of client items, everlasting inhabitants, common BHI, density of transportation services, density of catering service services, tally of an infection instances, and the consecutive days with confirmed instances.

Desk 3 Geographic detector outcomes of influencing elements of the CSI spatio-temporal variation in Beijing.

Financial degree stands as a pivotal and dynamic side of regional infrastructure improvement. Usually, areas with elevated financial standing boast important benefits throughout sources, markets, and infrastructure. From an financial standpoint, essentially the most impactful issue was the overall retail gross sales of client items, exhibiting an explanatory energy of 0.7672. This underscored the paramount affect of complete retail gross sales of client items on the event of the CSI in every city district of Beijing. Consistent with the previous dialogue, conclusions congruent with the spatiotemporal CSI traits in Beijing may very well be drawn. In Beijing, city areas with superior financial improvement hosted a larger abundance of eating institutions, resulting in a heightened focus and variety throughout the CSI. This development was significantly evident in core and central city areas, exemplified by districts like Dongcheng, Xicheng, and Haidian.

Inhabitants distribution influences the dimensions of the CSI in city areas. In Beijing, a concentrated inhabitants positively contributed to the growth of the city CSI. Among the many elements associated to inhabitants distribution, each everlasting inhabitants and the common BHI exhibited substantial explanatory energy, with values of 0.6573 and 0.5877, respectively. Areas with a dense inhabitants, dynamic mobility, and strong demographic vitality are inclined to generate greater client demand, thereby fostering the event of the CSI. The inhabitants distribution in Beijing indicated a lower in each everlasting residents and the BHI from town middle towards the city periphery. Ecological conservation areas in Beijing characterised by a comparatively sparse inhabitants and restricted mobility, skilled decrease catering earnings in Might and June of 2022. Conversely, core and central city areas, that includes greater inhabitants numbers and larger demographic vitality, demonstrated elevated ranges of catering earnings. As an illustration, Chaoyang District, internet hosting town’s largest everlasting inhabitants at 3,452,460, recorded the best catering earnings ranges in Might and June 2022. The earnings reached 11.3 and 18.6 billion yuan, respectively.

The comfort of service services performs a pivotal function within the improvement of CSI. Enhanced transportation accessibility advantages potential buyer engagement, and eating institutions usually select areas with handy transportation. The clustering of varied catering service services not solely broadens service choices and eating decisions but in addition aids in attracting and retaining prospects. Regarding service facility comfort, each transportation and catering facility densities demonstrated explanatory energy, registering at 0.5877. City areas with extra accessible transportation and the next focus of eating institutions tended to point out elevated catering earnings, significantly in core and central city areas. The districts with the excessive service facility comfort, akin to Dongcheng, Xicheng, and Chaoyang, constantly recorded elevated catering earnings ranges.

Concerning COVID-19 threat elements, the tally of an infection instances and the consecutive days with confirmed instances present had explanatory powers of 0.5585 and 0.5902, respectively. This underscored the challenges confronted by the Beijing CSI throughout the pandemic. With decreased inhabitants mobility as a result of epidemic prevention measures, there was a drastic lower in dine-out prospects. The recurrent nature of the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted conventional provide chains. Whereas on-line meals supply companies considerably prolonged operational channels, in addition they elevated working prices. In an effort to keep away from an infection, customers turned extra cautious. These elements considerably impacted the operation of catering companies, main many to voluntarily or involuntarily droop operations.

First, we analyzed from the attitude of the phases of pandemic improvement. Official financial knowledge for 2020 revealed substantial year-on-year income declined throughout varied districts in Beijing. No matter the kind of city space, districts akin to Haidian district skilled a 51.5% drop, whereas Tongzhou district confirmed a lower of 43.2%. Throughout the identical interval in 2021, when the pandemic was comparatively steady, catering income throughout districts surged, with over 50% development noticed in lots of districts. Nevertheless, in June 2022, knowledge from 15 districts (excluding Yanqing district) confirmed a uniform decline in catering income, with 13 districts experiencing drops exceeding 10%.

Subsequent, we performed an evaluation from the attitude of geographical area. Throughout the COVID-19 outbreak within the congregated settings of the Tiantang grocery store and bars in 2022, the districts of Chaoyang, Fengtai, and Haidian, which had the best variety of COVID-19 infections, year-on-year decreases in catering income of 19.2%, 14%, and 15%, respectively. These declines have been important within the context of citywide catering earnings statistics. Dongcheng and Xicheng district have been encircled by the three districts most severely affected by the pandemic. Amongst them, Dongcheng district’s income fell essentially the most at 20.7%, adopted by Xicheng district at 19.1% Within the earlier evaluation of the fluctuation within the variety of catering-related POI with the severity of the pandemic, the fluctuation within the variety of catering-related POI inside every district was extremely in step with the catering earnings and the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in every district. Notably in Might 2022, districts with the next variety of infections confirmed a noticeable discount within the variety of POI.

Whereas the event of CSI in Beijing was influenced by a number of elements, an evaluation of Beijing municipal statistics reveals a powerful correlation between the optimistic or detrimental development of catering earnings in varied districts and the pandemic state of affairs. Throughout large-scale clustered outbreaks of COVID-19, catering income in Beijing decreased year-on-year, significantly in districts closely affected by the pandemic, leading to important detrimental development charges. Conversely, when the pandemic state of affairs was steady, catering income throughout districts exhibited a year-on-year optimistic development development. It may be inferred that the outbreak of congregated COVID-19 instances has a detrimental impact on catering earnings within the affected areas, and the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic instantly impression the event of the CSI in these areas.

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